There are some really attractive odds on which Conservative Cabinet minister will be the first to leave.
Even in politically normal times, Cabinet resignations are relatively frequent and these are by no means normal times. The three Brexit ministers, Liam Fox, Boris Johnson and David Davis, are the current favourites to leave on 5/1, 6/1 and 8/1 respectively. Any one of these would make an attractive bet.
However, you may be more tempted by one of the less well-known ministers. The Home Secretary Amber Rudd looks particularly good value at 20/1. Before Theresa May, the Home Office was traditionally a graveyard for ministers and Rudd already ran into trouble this year with her conference announcement about making companies ‘name and shame’ foreign workers. Rudd isn’t the only minister who looks precarious. Priti Patel (16/1) and the notoriously gaffe-prone Chris Grayling have also run into difficulties in recent months. With May already proving herself to be a ruthless operator, the chances of at least one cabinet minister being forced to fall on their sword over the coming year looks strong.
- Boris Johnson to be the first cabinet minister to leave — ۶/۱
- Amber Rudd to be the first cabinet minister to leave — ۲۰/۱
Bookies still make 2020 or later the most likely date of the next election. However, there appears to be plenty of people betting on a snap election next year, with odds now down to just 6/4.
While there are good reasons to believe Theresa May will be forced to call an election next year, better value can be found in betting that it will be held in either 2018 or 2019, both currently at 16/1. The latter of these two bets looks like the best bet as it would mean that the election would take place after the boundary changes have gone through in 2018. With the end of the Article 50 process also due for 2019, this would also allow the prime minister to use victory in the general election as an effective endorsement for whatever Brexit deal she manages to secure.